After another bad poll in today’s guardian I went sadly to look for solace. Notably I did find some; in effect it said we as Lib Dems must take polls with a pinch of salt.

Any glance over the election results over previous years have told us that we are becoming ever more effective in translating limited amounts of the popular vote into seats.

The UK polling report blog also makes for a very interesting read. All in all we might take from it that the polls are poor in measuring local work and variables, a area in which the Lib Dems vary most.

Firstly there might be the variables in don’t knows, I might suggest that unlike the polls who are systematic across the nation in how they allocate don’t know voters the Lib Dems vary wildly. In the areas that we work hard and knock up well we can be very effective in raising our vote. This would be especially the case in two – horse race situations, where they don’t know voter is unsure of how to use that tactical vote. This links closely to my second point about getting the vote out. Those who are unsure about their tactical vote will if pushed on the day go out and vote if pushed that failure to do so will let x in. Effective work on the day can then have a large effect on the end vote.

Polling has for the party being disappointing it seems that only a limited number of the growth in our vote over the last 10 years have become loyal. Nationally we are being squeezed between Con and Lab, this could work to ways. Nationally we may loose out in terms of the popular vote, but against that where there are two horse race situations the tactical vote could be more responsive than ever. We should at the end of the day, remember that all of our seats have come out of strong and local campaigning that national polls fail to account for.

The House of Representatives yesterday voted though a bill that aimed to scupper the right wing agenda by decreeing that global warming is a reality. This, after so much from Bush, who has refused to carry out positive environmental action. Arguing instead that global warming claims, are based on inconclusive scientific evidence. The Bill also goes much further than the White House had whished in funding for the environmental agenda.

This follows recent trends in America, who have for a long time was the world worse polluter. Individual states like California have for example endorsed the Kyoto Protocol, candidates in for 2008 nominations have talked more on the environment and after the last midterm elections the Democrats were able to seize control of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee from Republican James Inhofe who claimed that global warming was a hoax.

Despite this good news we must bear in mind that Kyoto laid out only a fraction of the cuts that we must achieve and the challenge to combat global warming until real cuts are achieved remains as great as ever.

Source http://www.enn.com/globe.html?id=1710

Yesterday I commented on Cruise being banned from filming his new movie in Germany on account of being a scientologist. I made rather light of the situation and i think quite appropiatly called the law a bit overbearing.

However turns out everything is very serious. The German CDU have called for the religon to be banned and the cult are in fact still under police survellance. Cruise in 1997 sent a letter to the German goverment comparing the plight of scientologists to 1930s Jews.

All in all I expect to wake tomorrow with this blog closed down and I am very suspicous of the two cars parked outside.

Tomorrow will be my last day in school ever apart from to collect results and on the whole I think I will miss it but I am also ready for a change.

Certainly one thing I wont miss is the leisurely even institutional homophobia within the student population. The word gay certainly before I entered sixth form, although it hung around was used to describe just about anything in a negative manner. Its not that anyone would launch into a homophobic rant but the very use of that word to mean a negative description is enough to put pressure upon students. The negative use of gay quickly and all to easily slipped into “you’re gay” or “batty boy” once again the victim of the taunt wouldn’t actually be gay but it’s the use of the insult that sets the culture.

The whole thing seems so institutionalised that not much could be done about it. The use of gay as a negative adjective is not of interest to teachers more concerned with getting targets out of problematic children. The homophobia seems casual and meant in jest however a recent survey by Stonewall has revealed differently.

Two thirds of gay, lesbian or bisexual students have been verbally bullied, 41% physically attacked. A third do not feel safe within their own school.

Most shockingly of all though is that a third report abuse from staff a half had heard homophobic remarks from staff only a half of teachers had stepped in on homophobic bullying. Only a tiny 25% of schools actually told pupils that homophobic bullying is wrong. The survey found that this form of early injection could cut bullying by 60%.

I need not tell anyone likely to read this that these stats are appalling. What is most appalling is not the way in that we are dealing with a few but appalling cases, but instead widespread casual homophobia. So to is the fact that it is so prevalent within youth culture and schools. Teachers and individual institutions have an absolute duty to attack homophobic bullying at the point of source and early on. Failure to do so would act as an endorsement of such attitudes and language allowing people to enter the adult world and bring up children educating them with the same attitudes.

Ideologically there might be some problem allowing teachers to teach a certain ideology about homosexuality. That is not what we are dealing with though, bullying immediately curtails the freedoms of the victim.

Teachers as educators, people who at an early age teach behaviour that should guarantee us all our freedom cannot escape their duty to quickly intervene on homophobic bullying whatever their personal view.

To show your support to fight homophobic bullying please sign the online petition

News today revealed that Tom Cruise is to be band from filming on German army bases on the grounds that he is scientologist. Once again, although in Germany this seems fairly typical of Western law that is simply over zealous in how far it is prepared to go in monitoring in policing our behaviour.

Liberals have a important role in not just making sure that policing and law and order is carried out but we need to also give a long hard look at the laws themselves. The popular assumption that if it is against the law then it must be bad is simply not true.

The Lib Dem Freedom Bill campaign, which repeal some major laws is a step in the right direction.

The Sunday Mail yesterday reported that a man is set to appear in court after being in caught in the act with his favourite bicycle by hotel cleaners. Now I can’t personally see the attraction is with the bike perhaps he was trying to make tricycle (sorry needed to get that in.) but is it really required that he goes to court.

This all goes back to the whole privacy thing, I’m sorry but apart from being a bit weird this isn’t really a story. The two cleaners were apparently so shocked by what they were revealed to that they complained to the manager who then called the police. Now surely the most appropriate action would have been to just close the door.

This brings up the grand old issue of privacy. This case shows quite clearly that the neither the law nor society have moved on from policing private relations. What we do within in our bedroom as long as everybody is consensual or as in this case object that can’t feel is simply not the business of the law or others. Laws should concern themselves with stopping us from hurting others and granting basic positive rights not setting sexual norms.

Slightly more practically than a man’s right to fuck his bike, we have to ask if police and court time should really be taken up bringing this case to court.

Interest rates on standard student loans that are used by most students to pay their loans look set to shoot from 2.4% to 4.8%. They will now have to pay more after they graduate from their course. The Education Department were keen to point out that students would only pay this after they are earning £15,000 this doesn’t change the fact though that they will be paying more.

Not only will they be paying more but HSBC has announced that will be ending its zero interest overdraft policy for graduates so they will be paying more and able to borrow less.

Neither the Conservatives nor Labour including Brown can escape their role in brining the tax on education about. The argument that graduates should pay in the virtue that they will earn more ignores the effect of income tax. It also ignores all of the wealth put into the economy by a trained graduate. Statistics have shown that applications from the poorest students have fallen since the introduction of tuition fees. All the talk in the world about meritocracy won’t help develop equality of opportunities if we continue to charge students out of secondary education. Only the Lib Dems stand as the major force in Westminster committed to ending the tax on education.

(Source Guardian money 24/06/2007)

Ok first blog. Brief mission statement.
Why have i started to blog. Well because mainly I'm what most to refer to as a opinionated jerk. Any way the internet now seems to be the best way to get opinions and infomation out there so here it goes. I am now proud to announce the launch of liberal leslie the blog.